Adaptive N=1 Precision Oncology in KRAS-Mutant NSCLC: A Virtual Cohort Simulation of Iterative Treatment Strategies (2026)
Abstract Background: Precision oncology has traditionally relied on population-based evidence, yet tumor heterogeneity and dynamic resistance limit durable responses. N=1 adaptive strategies—where treatment is continuously tailored to an individual patient—represent a promising paradigm shift. Methods: We developed an in silico prospective cohort of 10 virtual patients with advanced KRAS-mutant non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Each patient underwent iterative treatment guided by simulated circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA), imaging, and evolving tumor genomics. The adaptive cohort was compared against a simulated standard-of-care (SOC) arm consisting of chemotherapy ± Pembrolizumab. Primary endpoint was progression-free survival (PFS). Results: Median PFS improved from 7.8 months (SOC) to 17.6 months (adaptive N=1 strategy). Early ctDNA-guided intervention enabled detection of resistance approximately 8–10 weeks prior to radiographic progression, consistent with prior clinical observa...